Iraq's political landscape remains in a state of disarray months after the country's November 2025 elections, with the government formation process grinding to a halt and the prospect of a stable, functioning administration appearing increasingly elusive. What this really means is that the war-torn nation is facing a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability, with far-reaching implications for the region and the global community.
Deadlock Over Presidential Election
At the heart of the crisis is the Iraqi parliament's inability to elect a new president, a role that by convention is reserved for a member of the Kurdish minority. Despite multiple attempts, lawmakers have failed to achieve the necessary two-thirds quorum to hold a vote, with the latest failed session on February 15. The impasse is exacerbating the country's political paralysis, as the president is tasked with formally naming a prime minister who must be backed by an absolute majority in parliament.
Competing Influences and Divisions
The bigger picture here is that Iraq's political landscape is deeply fractured, with competing factions and external influences jockeying for power. The Shia-led Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in parliament, is divided over its strategy, with some members adamant on pushing forward the candidacy of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki despite strong opposition from the United States. Meanwhile, the firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, whose bloc emerged victorious in the elections, is backing a rival candidate for the presidency.
Implications for Iraq and the Region
The prolonged political deadlock in Iraq has far-reaching implications, both for the country itself and the wider region. Without a functional government, the country will struggle to address pressing issues such as economic development, security challenges, and the ongoing fight against extremism. The power vacuum also creates opportunities for malign actors, including Iran-backed militias, to expand their influence, further destabilizing the country and the region. As FDD's Long War Journal notes, the United States' rejection of al-Maliki's candidacy suggests that Washington is seeking to limit Iran's grip on Iraqi politics, underscoring the broader geopolitical struggle playing out in the country.